Air Quality Forecast for Wednesday, July 25

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Action Day?:  No

Temperature: low to mid 80s

Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code YELLOW

Ozone (O3) – Code GREEN

Short-Term Discussion: Partly cloudy and cool to start out with some isolated areas of fog and temperatures bottoming out near 60 degrees. Partly sunny, warmer and more humid Wednesday afternoon with temperatures expected to be in the low to mid 80s. There is a chance that an afternoon shower or thunderstorm will cross portions of the forecast area. Wednesday’s fine-particulate concentrations should reach the lower code YELLOW (moderate) range while clouds and possible showers should keep ozone concentrations in the code GREEN (good) range.

Extended: The current weather pattern will not change much this week. Temperatures and humidity levels will increase as the week progresses but unstable conditions will likely result in afternoon showers and thunderstorms breaking out periodically until this system finally lifts out of the region later this weekend. Clouds and showers should limit ozone production and keep fine-particulate concentrations in the good to moderate range.

Air Quality Forecast for Friday, July 20

Friday, July 20, 2007

Action Day?: No

Temperature: around 80

Short-Term Discussion: By Friday afternoon, the cold front that brought the rain should have moved through the region leaving us with temperatures around 80. Background concentrations behind the front should be low, which will keep ozone and PM 2.5 in the good (Code Green) range.

Extended: A trough should persist over the region through the weekend bringing us cooler temperatures, but plenty of sunshine, this weekend. Highs should be in the mid to upper 70s on Saturday and the low 80s on Sunday and Monday. Pollutant levels may climb slightly during the weekend, but should remain in the good to moderate range.

Air Quality Forecast for Thursday, July 19

Thursday, July 19, 2007

Action Day?:  No

Temperature:  upper 80s

Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code YELLOW

Ozone (O3) – Code GREEN

Short-Term Discussion: Highs will be in the upper 80s with showers and thunderstorms likely. While clouds and rain should keep ozone concentrations in the good (code GREEN) range, particulate levels may be moderate (code YELLOW).

Extended Forecast

Date	7/19/2007	7/20/2007
Ozone	GREEN	GREEN
PM	YELLOW	GREEN

Extended: For Friday and through the weekend a trough should dig down across the region bringing more comfortable temperatures and low background concentrations of ozone and PM 2.5. Highs will be near 80 on Friday under partly cloudy skies, and should drop into the upper 70s on Saturday. While temperatures may warm a little for Sunday and into Monday, air quality should remain good to moderate for the forecast period.

Air Quality Forecast for Wednesday, July 18

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Action Day?:  No

Temperature:  mid to upper 80s

Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code YELLOW

Ozone (O3) – Code YELLOW

Short-Term Discussion: A weak stationary front continues to hang across the region, but a disturbance moving along the frontal boundary could bring some showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. Highs will be in the upper 80s with winds out of the west at 5 to 10 mph. The increasing clouds and chance of rain should keep the ozone concentrations in the moderate range. PM 2.5 values may continue to rise, but they should stay in the moderate (code YELLOW) range as well.
 
Extended: It looks like the frontal boundary will be a factor in the forecast though the day on Thursday before it pushes off the coast bringing cooler temperatures and lower background concentrations to the region. Highs will be in the upper 80s on Thursday and the upper 70s on Friday and into the weekend. Thunderstorms are likely during the week and are possible on Saturday as well. Pollutant levels will be moderate on Thursday, but may drop into the good to moderate range for Friday and the weekend.

Air Quality Forecast for Monday, July 16

Monday, July 16, 2007

Action Day?:  No

Temperature:  low 80s

Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code YELLOW

Ozone (O3) – Code YELLOW

Short-Term Discussion: It will be mostly sunny with highs in the low 80s and winds becoming southerly at 5 to 10 mph. Ozone and particulate concentrations are both expected to rise into the moderate (code YELLOW) range.

Extended: Temperatures will be on the rise in to the beginning of next week with highs in the mid to upper 80s on Sunday and the upper 80s on Monday and Tuesday with partly cloudy skies and a chance of thunderstorms each day. A trough pushing down out of eastern Canada looks like it will stall across the region for most of the period. While this pattern does not look like it will allow another mass of clean air to move into the region, a series of disturbances along the edge of this system may prevent significant ozone formation as well. Because of this, air quality should remain in the code YELLOW range through Monday.

Air Quality Forecast for July 13-16, 2007

Friday, July 13

Short-Term Discussion: Today will be partly cloudy with highs in the low to mid 80s and winds out of the west between 10 to 15mph. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s with a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms through this evening. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with highs in the low 80s and winds becoming southerly at 5 to 10 mph. Ozone and particulate concentrations are both expected to rise into the moderate (code YELLOW) range.

Extended: Temperatures will be on the rise in to the beginning of next week with highs in the mid to upper 80s on Sunday and the upper 80s on Monday and Tuesday with partly cloudy skies and a chance of thunderstorms each day. A trough pushing down out of eastern Canada looks like it will stall across the region for most of the period. While this pattern does not look like it will allow another mass of clean air to move into the region, a series of disturbances along the edge of this system may prevent significant ozone formation as well. Because of this, air quality should remain in the code YELLOW range through Monday.

Extended Weekend Forecast:

Saturday, July 14:
Ozone – Code YELLOW
Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code YELLOW

Sunday, July 15:
Ozone – Code YELLOW
Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code YELLOW

Monday, July 16:
Ozone – Code YELLOW
Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) - Code YELLOW

TODAY IS AN AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY

Wednesday, July 11:
Ozone - Code YELLOW
Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code ORANGE Air Quality Action Day

Yesterday’s Regional Maximum Ozone and PM 2.5 Concentrations:

Monday, July 9:
Ozone – ORANGE (111 AQI or 89 ppb at Freemansburg)
PM 2.5 – N/A

Short-Term Discussion:
Today will be another hot and hazy day with temperatures currently in the low 90s. Although ozone levels are climbing, the 8-hour average should remain in the moderate range.  The PM 2.5 levels, however, are on track to give us another code ORANGE day. We may see some isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but tonight should remain warm with overnight lows in the low 70s.

For tomorrow, a cold front will be approaching into the region bringing a welcome relief from the heat. Highs should reach the upper 80s with showers and thunderstorms likely from later in the afternoon through the evening hours.  Clouds and precipitation may help keep the ozone concentrations at moderate levels, but the PM 2.5 may be a little more persistent giving us another Air Quality ACTION DAY.

Extended:
Once the front has passed though, temperatures will likely remain cooler than the mid-80s we normally see this time of year. Thursday should be mostly sunny with highs in the low 80s–a good day to catch up on any yard work. Partly cloudy and cooler conditions should continue through the weekend. Temperatures may begin to rise early next week, but air quality should remain good to moderate throughout the period.

Air Quality Forecast for Monday, July 9

Monday, July 9, 2007

Action Day?:  No

Temperature: Low 90s

Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code YELLOW

Ozone (O3) – Code YELLOW

Short-Term Discussion: Very warm, hazy and humid on Monday. There is a slight chance there may be some isolated showers in parts of the forecast area but temperatures could easily rise into the low 90s with humidity levels expected to be very uncomfortable. Monday’s fine-particulate concentrations will probably reach the upper portions of the code YELLOW (moderate) range with high concentrations possible. Ozone concentrations should reach at least the code YELLOW (moderate) range but could also go higher.

Extended: Warm, hazy and humid weather expected for the first half of next week. There is some uncertainty on when a cool front will finally cross the region. Right now it looks like any relief will be slow to come, probably in the Thursday time period. Showers and thunderstorms could break out ahead of this front by as early as Tuesday. This should put a cap on ozone concentrations but fine-particulates will likely remain high until towards the end of next week.

Air Quality Forecast for Friday, July 6

Friday, July 6, 2007

Action Day?:  No

Temperature:  Low to mid 80s

Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code YELLOW

Ozone (O3) – Code GREEN

Short-Term Discussion: Some lingering clouds, haze and showers Friday morning with temperatures expected to fall into the mid 60s by morning. Becoming mostly sunny, warm and breezy with temperatures reaching the low to mid 80s. Friday’s fine-particulate concentrations should linger in the lower code YELLOW (moderate) range while ozone should settle in the upper code GREEN (good) range.
 
Extended: Another batch of warm and humid air will arrive later this weekend. Temperatures could reach into the 90s by Sunday. Hazy, warm and humid to start the workweek with some relief expected by Tuesday in the form of a cool front. We could have some poor air quality readings prior to this frontal passage. It remains to be seen if ozone or fine-particulate levels will reach air-quality alert levels.

Air Quality Forecast for Thursday, July 5

Thursday, July 5, 2007

Action Day?:  No

Temperature: Low 80s

Short-Term Discussion: Mostly cloudy with showers on Thursday. Skies should begin to clear late in the day allowing temperatures to reach the low 80s. Clouds and brisk winds should keep ozone and fine-particulate concentrations in the code GREEN (good) range.

Extended: This coming weekend is shaping up nicely. Expect dry weather with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels at least through Saturday. Becoming warmer and more humid on Sunday and Monday. Expect ozone and fine-particulate concentrations to range in the good to moderate range through the first half of the weekend then climb into the moderate range later this weekend and into next week.