Ozone (O3) – Code GREEN
Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code GREEN
Regional Maximum PM 2.5 Concentrations:
Wednesday, May 7, 2008:
Ozone - YELLOW (100 AQI or 75 ppb)
PM 2.5 – YELLOW (66 AQI or 23.3 µg/m3)
Short-Term Discussion: Ozone just missed exceeding the moderate threshold yesterday. No real chance for a repeat of that in the near future as clouds and showers remain locked in over the state. Fine-particulate levels are still in the moderate range and will remain there until cooler and drier air works its way into the region this weekend.
Clouds, showers and fog expected overnight as a cool front remains parked over us; low temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid 50s. Heavy rains and brisk winds are expected to develop near daybreak possibly accompanied by a rumble of thunder. Rain could cause some localized flooding in poor drainage areas. Precipitation will diminish by Friday evening though strong northeasterly winds will be in place by then. Temperatures may reach 60 degrees early in the day then start to fall by the afternoon. Clouds, rain and strong northeasterly winds should bring down Friday’s fine-particulate concentrations and keep ozone concentrations in the code GREEN (good) range.
Extended: We are still looking at a series of storms forecast to pass through our region over the next several days. Clouds should clear out later on Friday for a short duration but a weak disturbance may bring some light showers on Saturday. The first half of Mother’s Day still looks dry but a potent storm system will make its way into the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday evening. With a quick progression of storms forecast to affect our region, we do not expect air-quality readings to go much above the low moderate threshold in the extended period.
Visit the EPA’s Air Quality Awareness Week site here!
From EPA:
Contact: Cathy Milbourn, (202) 564-4355 / milbourn.cathy@epa.gov
EPA and the National Weather Service challenge all Americans to improve their knowledge of the Air Quality Index (AQI) during the annual “Air Quality Awareness Week” that takes place this year from April 28 to May 2, 2008. As warm weather approaches, using the AQI will help reduce exposure to ground-level ozone pollution. The Air Quality Index is EPA’s color-coded tool for communicating air quality to the public. The most common AQI forecasts range from “code green,” — a good day to engage in outdoor activities, to “code red” — when everyone should use caution.
This summer, residents of many cities may notice more “code orange” ozone days than in the past. The potential increase in these “orange” days does not mean air quality is getting worse; it is a result of EPA’s recent strengthening of the national ozone standards. However, any time air quality reaches “code orange,” those sensitive to ground-level ozone should alter their outdoor activities to reduce exposure.
The daily AQI forecast is widely available from a variety of electronic and print media sources. Members of the public can also receive daily email updates of the air quality forecast by subscribing and following the directions on “EnviroFlash” at: http://www.airnow.gov/ Recent improvements to EnviroFlash make it easier to use. Just enter: the name, e-mail address, and zip code and EnviroFlash will find the nearest local forecast. The information can also be customized to select a specific forecast to be received, such as for “code red” days only.
Information about state and local Air Quality Awareness Week events is available at:http://airnow.gov/airaware and click on state/local activities.
The National Weather Service also provides a national air quality forecast at:http://www.weather.gov/aq
Information on air quality trends through 2007 is available at: http://www.epa.gov/airtrends
This is a note from SEP meteorologist Sean Nolan:
First, let me thank you for being a subscriber to the Lehigh Valley / Berks AreaAir Quality Forecast. As you are aware, we issue Air Quality Action Days when we foresee air quality conditions reaching the Code ORANGE status or higher on EPA’s Air Quality Index (AQI) scale (for more details, seehttp://www.airnow.gov/index.cfm?action=static.aqi).
That said, I wanted to make you aware of some changes that are forthcoming for the upcoming summer season.
1.) We will begin forecasting for ozone starting today, Monday, April 28th. Therefore, the forecast for the Lehigh Valley / Berks area will include a forecast for both ozone and PM 2.5 through the summer months. In addition, the April 28th to May 2nd period marks Air Quality Awareness Week (for more details, see http://www.epa.gov/airnow/airaware/airaware.html). The inclusion of ozone to our forecast leads us to item 2.).
2.) We will most likely be forecasting for more Air Quality Action Days for Ozone this summer. The reason: We are adopting the new ozone Air Quality Index (AQI) scale that EPA has released. The history: Back in March, 2008, EPA released a new ozone standard, changing the 8-hour ozone threshold from 85 ppb to 76 ppb. For more information on this change, go tohttp://www.epa.gov/air/ozonepollution/actions.html. In the past, the Code YELLOW to Code ORANGE cutpoint on the AQI was at 85 ppb. When the new 8-hour ozone standard was lowered to 76 ppb, EPA adjusted the AQI scale to reflect this change. Therefore, the new Code YELLOW to Code ORANGE cutpoint on the AQI was set to 76 ppb. Here is how this change would have influenced the issuance of Air Quality Action Days over the past 5 years (the number in first column is the year and in the other two columns are the number of days)…
|
Old AQI
|
New AQI
|
|
2003
|
4
|
10
|
|
2004
|
8
|
16
|
|
2005
|
8
|
16
|
|
2006
|
3
|
9
|
|
2007
|
3
|
17
|
|
Average
2003-07
|
5.2
|
13.6
|
**Number of days calculated for the ozone monitoring period, from April 1 through October 31.
As you can see, this change has increased the number of Air Quality Action Days for Ozone each of the past five years. Therefore, we expect to be forecasting for more Air Quality Action Days for Ozone starting this year.
3.) In addition to the changes in the ozone forecasting, we might see changes in the number of Air Quality Action Days for PM 2.5. The reason: EPA willeventually be releasing a new PM 2.5 AQI scale. The history: Back in November 2006, EPA released a new PM 2.5 standard, changing the 24-hour PM 2.5 threshold from 65 ug/m3 to 35 ug/m3 (for more details, seehttp://www.epa.gov/oar/particlepollution/naaqsrev2006.html). Unlike ozone in 2.) above, EPA did not release a change in the PM 2.5 AQI scale during the time of the announcement of the new PM 2.5 standard. Therefore, we continue to use the Code YELLOW to Code ORANGE cutpoint in the AQI of 40.5 ug/m3. The proposed PM 2.5 standard would change the Code YELLOW to Code ORANGE cutpoint in the AQI to 35.5 ug/m3. Here is how this change would have influenced the issuance of Air Quality Action Days for PM 2.5 over the past 5 years (the table is read the same way as the one for ozone above)…
|
|
Old AQI
|
New AQI
|
|
2004
|
2
|
7
|
|
2005
|
9
|
21
|
|
2006
|
11
|
19
|
|
2007
|
7
|
16
|
|
Average
2004-07
|
7.3
|
15.8
|
**Number of days calculated during the entire year, from January 1 through December 31.
As I stated above, nothing has officially changed with regards to PM 2.5 cutpoints on the AQI scale. So as of right now, we will continue to forecast the Code YELLOW to Code ORANGE cutpoint as 40.5 ug/m3. The change in the AQI is most likely to take effect sometime this summer, though, which is why I wanted to address that item in this email.
Thank you for your time.
ScienceDaily Apr. 23, 2008 — Short-term exposure to current levels of ozone in many areas is likely to contribute to premature deaths, says a new National Research Council report, which adds that the evidence is strong enough that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency should include ozone-related mortality in health-benefit analyses related to future ozone standards. The committee that wrote the report was not asked to consider how evidence has been used by EPA to set ozone standards, including the new public health standard set by the agency in March. Read more here…
Jessica Marshall, Discovery News
April 10, 2008 — The carbon in oil and coal is used to make many useful things: fuel, plastics, paints, detergents, pharmaceuticals…the list is long. Unfortunately, most of that carbon — especially from fuel — ends up in the atmosphere as good-for-nothing, climate-change-inducing carbon dioxide.
But is it really good for nothing? Read More at Discovery News
Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code GREEN
Regional Maximum PM 2.5 Concentrations:
Monday, March 24, 2008:
PM 2.5 – GREEN (35 AQI or 10.8 µg/m3)
Short-Term Discussion: Light showers are working their way eastward out of Michigan at the moment. Clouds should thicken as this system approaches our area later this evening. These showers may eventually affect our region early tomorrow morning though the bulk of the precipitation is forecast to stay well to our north. Fine-particulate concentrations are currently in the good range.
Increasing clouds overnight with the possibility of some light showers developing over portions of the forecast area. Precipitation should fall in the form of rain as most areas should stay in the mid 30s except in the higher elevations to our north. Mostly cloudy with a passing shower in the morning though we should see some breaks in the overcast and an increase in the wind later in the afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the mid 50s. Westerly winds and drier air should keep Wednesday’s fine-particulate concentrations in the codeGREEN (good) range.
Extended: A frontal boundary should develop over the forecast area later this week. This means we are probably in for an extended period of clouds and showers that could last through Friday. While temperatures should stay on the cool side, they should be warm enough to keep the bulk of any precipitation in liquid form. Air-quality readings should fluctuate between the good and moderate ranges over the next several days.
Spring must be coming because the ice on Lake Erie is beginning to break up! The Buffalo NWS Office has a nice site showing ice-melt progress. If you are interested click here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/ice0708/index_0708.htm (note recent winds have shoved most of the ice against the southern and eastern sides of the lake)
Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code GREEN **First Day of Spring!*
Regional Maximum PM 2.5 Concentrations:
Tuesday, March 18, 2008:
PM 2.5 – GREEN (29 AQI or 8.3 µg/m3)
Short-Term Discussion: Clouds, showers and fog have crept in across most of the forecast area. A Flood Watch has been posted for Lehigh and Northampton counties as an area of low pressure moves towards our region. This system could trigger heavy rains, gusty winds and possibly a rumble of thunder later tonight. Fine-particulate concentrations are rising in portions of Berks County though numbers are expected to fall later this evening.
Cloudy with fog and a possible thunderstorm overnight; rain could be heavy causing some localized flooding. Winds will increase as temperatures fall into the low 40s. Mostly cloudy early with gusty winds and some lingering showers. Skies will clear gradually by the afternoon though winds will remain brisk with temperatures only expected reach the mid to upper 40s. Strong northwesterly winds and drier air will help keep Thursday’s fine-particulate concentrations in the code GREEN (good) range.
Extended: Once this system clears out we should see an extended period with little or no significant precipitation except for a weak low projected to cross the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. This system may produce some light mixed precipitation. Temperatures should run a bit lower than average this weekend as relatively cold air sits over the eastern half of the country. The models are beginning to pick up an interesting storm system for early next week, but we’ll just have to wait to see what happens. For now we expect air-quality readings to remain mainly in the good range for the extended period.
Saturday, March 15, 2008:
Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code GREEN
Sunday, March 16, 2008:
Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code GREEN
Monday, March 17, 2008:
Fine Particulates (PM 2.5) – Code GREEN
Regional Maximum PM 2.5 Concentrations:
Thursday, March 14, 2008:
PM 2.5 – YELLOW (61 AQI or 20.5 µg/m3)
Short-Term Discussion: Mostly sunny skies across the region; showers are currently pushing into the western end of the state and should arrive here later this evening. Quite pleasant with temperatures in the 50s with an outside chance we may see 60. Air-quality readings have risen into the mid to upper moderate range this afternoon. These should begin to fall once the rain arrives tonight.
Cloudy with rain and fog expected overnight with temperatures falling towards 40 degrees. Lingering showers Saturday morning with brisk northwesterly winds. Skies will clear gradually in the afternoon with temperatures expected to reach the mid 50s. Fine-particulate concentration should fall throughout the day as drier air is ushered in by northwesterly winds. This should be enough to lower Saturday’s fine-particulate concentrations into the code GREEN (good) range.
Another storm system will make its way out of the country’s midsection causing clouds to increase overnight. Rain may develop towards morning though the bulk of the precipitation is forecast to pass to our south. Any rain should end and skies should begin to clear by the afternoon. Brisk northerly winds will develop behind this system making it feel chilly as temperatures struggle to get into the 40s. Brisk winds and drier air should keep Sunday’s fine-particulate concentrations in the code GREEN (good) range.
Mainly clear and breezy overnight with temperatures expected to fall into the 20s. Becoming mostly sunny with diminishing winds and afternoon temperatures near 50 degrees. Monday’s fine-particulate concentrations should begin to rise but overall remain mainly in the code GREEN (good) range.
Extended: A quick check of the rain gauges across the forecast region confirms we’ve been running well above average so far this year. We should get a bit of a reprieve to start out next week though rain could be back in our picture as soon as Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast to be a bit below where we should be for this time of year (50s for his and 30s for lows). With this quick progression of systems we don’t expect air-quality readings to move much above the moderate range.
